December 7, 1999. You didn't think that I was going to go the entire year without writing about
one of the most famous companies in the world!
About 17 years ago a Dean Witter (Morgan Stanley) sales rep came over to me and said that he
had a stock that would make me a lot of money in my IRA. Of course, I asked him to name the company, but wouldn't
promise him I would buy it. His answer was AT&T. I should have listened to him.
Needless to say, a $2000 deposit in my IRA every year since then would have given me a 15% return,
including dividends. Looking at the numbers alone, AT&T should be a compelling buy.
Telecom and Internet stocks are red hot, and over the long term the blue chip giants will be
a much safer way to play than dot com stocks.
Nobody is bigger than AT&T. The company has a great balance sheet and commands $60 billion
revenues. Growth is projected at 11% to 15% per year and trades at 25 times estimated earnings for next year.
In this market, a P/E ratio double the growth rate isn't too bad for a top tech stock. So why
has AT&T's price action been sub par? The stock is up about 70% over the past five years, while the S&P
500 has tripled over the same period. And although the shares have roughly matched the market over the past two
years, AT&T's performance has been extremely choppy.
It's just a lack of investor's interest and confidence of corporate strategy. AT&T wants
to offer a wide range of services including; both local and long distance telephone services, regular and digital
cable TV, and cable modem Internet access to as many U.S. households as possible. Even though AT&T's plans
are ambitious, they can create a tracking stock for AT&T's wireless operation and it would be an additional
short term plus.
So, would I recommend this company for an IRA holding? Yes. There's no question that the stock
would be a terrific buy. That's why TV business programs were buzzing earlier this week when telecom analysts turned
bullish on the stock for the first time in more than four years. They project that the $55 price point could go
as high as $75 or $80 over the next 12 months or so. A great long term holding for anybody.
George